Costa Rica — Assessing Climate Mitigation Pathways to Support NDC Implementation

Costa Rica has set a very ambitious Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Despite the low-carbon footprint of its power sector, the goal set in its NDC requires further decarbonization of the national energy system. A TIMES model was developed in order to assess alternative energy and decarbonization scenarios for the country, with a particular emphasis on demand-side actions. A group of local experts actively participated in the model and scenario development while being trained in its use. Additionally, a set of tools for processing model outputs and graphical comparison of scenarios was used to facilitate the communication of results to stakeholders. Three groups of scenarios were developed and assessed. Firstly, the Baseline (business-as-usual) scenario was established and set as the benchmark in the absence of any mitigation policies. Secondly, scenarios which examine the already Planned policies and programs that are envisioned to be undertaken in Costa Rica were assembled and explored. Finally, Enhanced mitigation scenarios that lead the country towards its NDC at least-cost were designed and evaluated. In total, over 75 mitigation measures were defined and addressed in this study covering all the sectors within the energy economy.