O EFEITO DA DÍVIDA PÚBLICA NO CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO DOS ESTADOS BRASILEIROS

The impact of public debt on economic growth is the subject of several studies in the economic literature. However, there is a gap in relation to cross-country analyzes on the subject, especially at the level of States that have been poorly studied and are the ones in the worst situation among federative entities, with their deteriorated revenues and accumulated debts to the Federal Government. This paper sought to verify the effect of public indebtedness on the economic growth of the Brazilian states. The regression econometric model with System-GMM panel data was used for the 27 federative units of Brazil, comprising the period between 2000 and 2014. The results of the study pointed to a negative relation of debt in relation to economic growth, when considered the immediate temporal aspect. However, a positive relation was verified when confirming its effect on the lag, confirming the initial hypothesis that debt has positive effects on economic growth, showing that it is plausible to use debt to cover expenditures in productive areas, which would not be possible with the collection, given the level of commitment of the budget with current expenditures. Therefore, this work brings contributions related to the formulation and evaluation of public policies, considering that it offers conclusions that indicate that the strategic use of indebtedness, when directed to productive sectors, can stimulate the economic growth.