Modelling the variability of heat flow due to the random thermal conductivity of the crust

SUMMARY Analytical solutions for the mean heat flow and its error bounds have been obtained by solving the steady-state heat conduction equation following a stochastic analytical approach incorporating Gaussian uncertainties in the thermal conductivity. This study on the uncertainty analysis to quantify the variability in the heat flow along with its associated error statistics has been applied to the Latur earthquake region of the Indian shield. Results obtained show that the mean heat flow and its error bounds are highly dependent on the random components of the thermal conductivity, such as its coefficient of variability and its correlation length-scale. Hence the study can be used to quantify the error statistics in the heat flow field for any given region.