Delayed Age at First Breeding and Experimental Removals Show Large Non-Breeding Surplus in Pied Flycatchers

Avian breeding populations have been shown to be regulated by territorial behaviour, often creating a surplus of non-breeding individuals. However, most evidence is of a male non-breeder surplus, whereas for a surplus to actually buffer a population both non-breeding males and females should be present. Here, we provide descriptive and experimental evidence for the existence of a population buffer consisting of mostly male and potentially also female Pied Flycatchers using nest box areas. First we show that local recruits often do not breed in their first year, with 23% of all recruiting males observed breeding in their first year, and 51% of females. When accounting for mortality in the years prior to observed first breeding, we estimate that only 9% of all first-year males breed locally, and 29% of first-year females. Similar percentages of first-year flycatchers skipping breeding have been observed in other study populations. We show that in the year of new establishment of our nest box plots, most kno...