Stochastic modeling to represent wind power generation and demand in electric power system based on real data

A methodology to model two types of random perturbation that affect the operation of electric power systems (EPS) are presented. The first uncertainty is wind power generation and is represented by a one-dimensional and by a multidimensional continuous stochastic process. The second one is power demand, and is modeled by using an hybrid structure based on harmonic regression and the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (O–U) process. The stochastic models are applied to a real Chilean case, using real data for parametric estimation and validation models.