Population growth and food supplies in different time perspectives.

Although the World Food Conference spent little time discussing the issue of population and food it was more direct in the assessment of the effect of continually growing population on world food supply than the World Population Conference. The World Food Conference was concerned with a time horizon during which the population to be fed is largely predetermined. However long-range discussions must acknowledge 2 variables: 1) long-range agricultural production is much less variable than short-range which is largely dependent upon the weather and is largely a function of the amount of cultivatible land the amount of water and other components available to put into the land and the yield; 2) population is basically those already born those about to be born about which little can be done and the large number whose birth can be determined by present action. During the past 25 years average rate of increase of food production has deteriorated from 3.1% in the 1950s to 2.8% in the 1960s and 2.2% in the 1st 1/2 of the 1970s. This slowdown has been marked in the developed countries. Increase has been steady in developing ocuntries but per capita figures are down because growth rates have risen for population up to 2.4% in 1975. In spite of every good harvests in 1975 per capita food increase in developing countries increased only .2% in 1971-1975. Maldistribution of food increases the problem. Wealthy countries consume 120% of the daily dietary need while developing nations cosume 86-96% on an average. The nutrition problem is most severe in Africa and Asia. There is further maldistribution in individual countries and even within families. This probably explains why infant mortality rates which have been decling for decades have suddenly turned up. In developing countries only 39 of 96 for which data were avilable had adequate dietary energy supplies in 1969-1971. In addition 1/3 of the worlds grain is fed to livestock in developed countries. To meet the needs for world nutrition several steps must be taken: 1) efforts must be made to bring more land under cultivation 2) the problems of maldistribution must be solved and 3) efforts must be made to bring population growth under control.