The Yin–Yang of CYP3A4: a Bayesian meta-analysis to quantify inhibition and induction of CYP3A4 metabolism in humans and refine uncertainty factors for mixture risk assessment

Quantifying differences in pharmacokinetics (PK) and toxicokinetics (TK) provides a science-based approach to refine uncertainty factors (UFs) for chemical risk assessment. Cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A4—the major hepatic and intestinal human CYP—and the P-glycoprotein (Pgp) transporter share a vast range of common substrates for which PK may be modulated through inhibition or induction in the presence of grapefruit juice (GFJ) or St. John’s wort (SJW), respectively. Here, an extensive literature search was performed on PK interactions for CYP3A4 and Pgp substrates after oral co-exposure to GFJ and SJW. Relevant data from 109 publications, extracted for both markers of acute (Cmax) and chronic [clearance and area under the plasma concentration–time curve (AUC)] exposure, were computed into a Bayesian hierarchical meta-analysis model. Bioavailability (F) and substrate fraction metabolised by CYP3A4 (Fm) were identified as the variables exhibiting the highest impact on the magnitude of interaction. The Bayesian meta-regression model developed provided good predictions for magnitudes of inhibition (maximum 5.3-fold with GFJ) and induction (maximum 2.3-fold with SJW). Integration of CYP3A4 variability, F, Fm and magnitude of interaction provided the basis to derive a range of CYP3A4 and Pgp-related UFs. Such CYP3A4 and Pgp-related UFs can be derived in the absence of human data using in vitro TK evidence for CYP3A4/Pgp inhibition or induction as conservative in silico options. The future development of quantitative in vitro–in vivo extrapolation models for mixture risk assessment is discussed with particular attention to integrating human in vitro and in vivo P/TK data on interactions with pathway-related variability.