Influence of Changes in Obesity Indicators on the Risk of Hypertension: A Cohort Study in Southern China.

Objectives The objective of this study was to demonstrate the association between changes in different obesity indicators and the risk of incident hypertension by the age-group among community-dwelling residents in southern China. Methods A total of 6,959 non-hypertensive participants aged ≥18 years old were enrolled in this cohort study and completed questionnaire interviews and anthropometric measurements at baseline (2010) and follow-up (2017). A time-dependent covariate Cox proportional hazard model considered the changes in obesity indicators during the follow-up period and calculated the hazard ratios (HRs) to analyze the risk of incident hypertension according to different obesity indicators. Results During a mean follow-up of 7.1 years, 1,904 participants were newly diagnosed with hypertension. The body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) were significantly positively associated with an increased future risk of incident hypertension, and BMI was the best predictive indicator of hypertension (obesity in men: HR = 2.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.20-3.20; obesity in women: HR = 2.80, 95% CI = 2.27-3.45). Compared with the middle-aged and older group, the risk of incident hypertension was highest in the younger group which had the highest baseline obesity indicators. Conclusions Changes in obesity indicators were significantly associated with the risk of incident hypertension in all age-groups, and the risk of future incident hypertension increased with the increase in baseline obesity indicators.