Resources-oriented industrial system evolution analysis:Yellow phosphorus industrial system evolution for example

China’s production data of yellow phosphorus are used to fit the industry evolution process by Logistic equation,and the result shows that the evolution process of China’s yellow phosphorus industry presents an S curve and the yellow phosphorus product capacity won’t exceed 950 kt/a.Complex adaptive system (CAS) theory is adopted,the actions and interrelationships of the governments,yellow phosphorus enterprises,phosphorus ore enterprises,power plants and environment organizations are analyzed,and the primary conflicts are recognized.The development trends of yellow phosphorus industry system are forecasted as that it should develop in ecological direction by the effects of multiagent interactions,and would decline for substitute of hydro phosphate.