Leading Economic Determinants of Foreign Trade Volume in Turkish Agriculture Sector

We empirically analyze the main economic factors affecting the export and import levels in Turkish agriculture sector. Using monthly time series of certain domestic and international variables, we make three complementary analysis; namely, principal component analysis, causality and co-integration analysis, and multivariate GARCH analysis. The empirical findings point out the fact that foreign trade volume in Turkish agriculture sector is statistically in relation with agricultural production, consumer price index, market capitalization of the firms, and international agriculture prices.