Перспективы технологического развития сектора машиностроения в Красноярском крае (форсайт-исследование)

The purpose of the study is determining the prospects for technological development of engineering industry in the Krasnoyarsk Krai, which is one of the largest industrial regions of the Russian Federation. Based on the forecasts performed by leading Russian and international "think tanks" and a series of in-depth expert interviews key trends of mechanical engineering are identified: revolution in materials; digitalization of processes; cognitization of large-scale systems; institutional transformation. A "map" of new technologies in machinery construction was developed for an expert assessment of the prospects of these technologies; an expert survey was carried out. Based on the survey data, six groups (clusters) of technologies that vary in prospects for modernization and for the creation of new machinery construction enterprises in the Krasnoyarsk Krai were identified. Five groups with medium and high level of prospects include 24 technologies; 15 of them are digital (63%). The research shows that the expected technological changes in engineering industry in the Krasnoyarsk Krai correspond to the global trends of digitalization and robotization, and this changes will take the form of "catch-up" modernization. A difficult ecological situation characteristic for the region determines the high priority of "monitoring of negative environmental impacts", "diagnostics of machinery and equipment", "technology ensuring environmental safety", etc.