Against the trend: increasing numbers of breeding Northern Lapwings Vanellus vanellus and Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa limosa on a German Wadden Sea island

Capsule The increase in population sizes over the last 30 years cannot be explained by reproductive success. Aims To establish whether the positive population trends are due to increasing and self-sustaining populations or to immigration. Methods We studied the population development of breeding lapwings from 1971 until 2005 and of godwits from 1977 until 2005 on Wangerooge, a German Wadden Sea island. Both species increased significantly during the last three decades. For each species we used a logistic growth model to derive the reproductive output required to explain the past population development without assuming immigration. We compare the values derived by this model with empirical findings of reproductive output of the respective populations. Results For neither lapwings nor godwits can empirical reproductive success explain the observed population development. Conclusion Our results imply that the increase in breeding pairs of Northern Lapwing and Black-tailed Godwit on Wangerooge Island is not d...