Improved Re-Entry Prediction Method Using the Last-Minute Motion of Re-Entering Objects

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been carrying out the re-entry prediction of the debris for more than 30 years. Formerly, we had used only Two Line Elements (TLE) by U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) for the re-entry prediction. After developing the Kamisaibara Space Guard Center (KSGC) which has a phased-array radar and is owned by Japan Space Forum, we have been performing the orbit determination and prediction by radar observation data in parallel. In this paper, focusing on re-entry objects in a low altitude with large fluctuations, we will report on and discuss about the orbit determination method using radar observation data of only a single arc and only two TLEs just before the re-entry. As a result, we confirmed an improvement in the prediction accuracy.