Predicting urban sprawl and land use changes in Akure region using markov chains modeling

This study makes use of Markov chains modeling to predict sprawl and pattern of land use change in Akure region. Efforts were made to examine the trend of the expansion using Aerial Imagery Interpolation (AII). It focuses on overlaying of Landsat TM imageries of 1986, 2002, 2007 and 2014 to determine the land use changes and extent of expansion between 1985 and 2014. The land use were classified and displayed in colors for better visualization. With the aid of Markov chain modeling, the study made a projection of possible land use area and extent of expansion by the year 2034. Findings revealed continuous expansion in the growth of the city as evident in percentage increase of the built-up area. There were incompatible conversions in land uses and unguided expansions leading to undue encroachment into green areas at the suburbs. It was observed that without appropriate attention to adequate planning for effective measures, the trend of changing agricultural and forested lands to built-up areas will continue to increase with attendant effects on regional environment. Consequently, the study suggests effective zoning strategy and sustainable monitoring measures by different stakeholders in urban planning to check indiscriminate urban expansion in the study area.   Key words: Urban sprawl, land-use pattern, markov chains, landsat TM imageries, Aerial Imagery Interpolation (AII).