Prediction of stable high blood pressure in adolescents.

We studied the relative importance of the initial BP and associated factors in adolescents to predict stable high BP. Out of 17.634 children aged 12-13 yrs an upper group the upper 5% of the distribution curves for both SBP and DBP/ a lower group/10% random from the remainder/were yearly fallowed for 4 yrs/boys: 1680, girls: 1643/. About 2/3 of children remained at the same percentile point: < 30% and ≥ 70% of SBP and half of them of DBP distribution. Significant positive tracking correlations were found both for SBP and DBP between the initial BP and follow-up BP readings in the same individual. Stepwise regression analysis showed that the SBP taken at the fourth follow-up can be explained by 29% in boys, 24% in girls on the basis of screening SBP and by 47% in boys, 42% in girls on the basis of SBP measured at the four previous examinations. Using discriminant analysis, 6-9 variables out of 18 studied could correctly allocate adolescents with stable SBP or DBP/< 70% or ≥70% at least 3 examinations/. Our...