Three Tsunamis Cresting above R&D Lab of the Future

We often talk about how different our world is from our parents' world. We then extrapolate this thinking to our children and try to imagine the world they will face. This is hard enough. However, change is changing! The rate at which change is occurring is accelerating. These new ideas, technologies and ecologies appear to be coming at us like tsunamis. Our approach to responding to these oncoming tsunamis will frame the future in which our children will live. There are many tsunamis, and in this article I shall focus on three really big ones that I see heading our way. I have chosen them on the basis of a series of lectures by professional "futurists" held at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Langley Research Center last year. Technological Exponentials One of the reasons it feels like the rate of change is accelerating is because the rate at which technological change is occurring has been recognized as exponential. These types of changes begin quite modestly and remain at only slight growth for quite some time; then, as they mature, "all of a sudden" they become huge. We have all seen this in the dramatic growth of personal computers, cell phones and even the Internet. If these trends continue, computers will be 1,000 times faster in just five years. At this speed they will be as fast as the human brain. It is then "just" a software problem to replicate a functioning human brain. We have already done a complete simulation of the cerebellum. Although replicating a complete human brain will not be easy, no one thinks it will not be done-in our children's lifetimes. So what happens when a computer can simulate a human brain? How long before we can upload the contents of our brain? Certainly we will be able to connect these simulations to robotics and then what do we have? The impact of just these information technology exponentials will certainly be felt in the R&D laboratory. Will we be doing research remotely? Will virtual reality become so "real" that we do not need to go there? What will be the effect of "free" computing and storage on how we collect and analyze data? Demographic Changes It has been said that those who ignore demographics do so at their own peril. The world demographics are changing, and with those changes are coming significant impacts on the world's economy, health care, education systems, food and water supply, and leadership. The West, and particularly the United States, has held onto a particular dominance in physical and economic power for quite some time. This may not always be the case, and in fact the demographics show that it will not be the case. Our children will see China grow to have the world's largest gross domestic product. India will soon after overtake the U.S. in GDP. U.S. imports have already overtaken exports, while China and India have become exporting machines. …