Revelation of Expectations in Latin America (REVELA): Issue 66: September, 2016

The August 2016 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth rate expected for 2016 for the eight countries covered by REVELA has remained stable at 1.7% compared to the July. Similarly, the GDP weighted-average growth rate expected for 2016 remained stable at -0.4% in August. At the same time, inflation expectations decreased by 0.2% from 5.4% to 5.2% on a simple average basis but increased by 0.1% from 5.6% to 5.7% on a GDP weighted average basis. Growth expectations increased by 0.1% in Brazil from -3.3% to -3.2% and fell by 0.1% both in Chile (from 1.7% to 1.6%) and Mexico (from 2.3% to 2.2%). They remained constant in Peru at 3.8%, Guatemala at 3.4%, Paraguay at 3.0%, Colombia at 2.8% and Uruguay at 0.0%. Expected growth for the region now ranges from -3.2% in Brazil to 3.8% in Peru. Inflation expectations increased in Colombia by 0.3% from 6.5% to 6.8%, in Guatemala by 0.2% from 4.3% to 4.5% and in Brazil by 0.1% from 7.2% to 7.3%. They decreased in Uruguay by 0.9% from 10.3% to 9.4%, in Paraguay by 0.5% from 4.8% to 4.3%, in Peru by 0.3% from 3.3% to 3.0% and in Mexico by 0.1% from 3.2% to 3.1%. Finally, they remained stable in Chile at 3.5%. Inflation expectations for the region now range from 3.0% in Peru to 9.4% in Uruguay.