Methodological Approach of the GEF IEO’s Climate Change Mitigation Impact Evaluation: Assessing Progress in Market Change for Reduction of CO 2 Emissions

This chapter presents the methodological approach adopted in the evaluation of GEF support to market change for climate change mitigation in four emerging markets: China, India, Mexico and Russia. The evaluation was completed in October 2013. This evaluation included 18 completed and fully evaluated GEF mitigation projects covering various sectors with opportunities for renewable energy, energy efficiency and methane emission reduction. A theory of change approach was used to undertake a comparative analysis across projects aiming to tease out changes across diverse markets or markets segments in different countries as a consequence of GEF support. While attention was given to the extent to which projects resulted in actual greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, more emphasis was placed on understanding the extent and forms by which GEF projects contributed to long term market changes resulting in GHG emission reductions and assessing the added value of GEF support in the context of multiple factors affecting market change.