The climate change mitigation potential of sugarcane based technologies for automobiles; CO2 negative emissions in sight

Abstract Continuous effort to mitigate climate change relies on new technologies able to satisfy human demand for energy services with high energy efficiency and reasonable costs. We show that blending a well-known technology with recently introduced and proven technical advances can mitigate climate change in the road transport sector. Furthermore, the achievement of a reasonable cost target is proved to be true when internal combustion engines (ICE) light duty vehicles (LDVs), powered by gasoline fuel, are replaced by plug-in hybrid LDVs (PHEV), powered by ethanol and electricity produced from sugarcane, using well established technology. The only improvements in such ethanol producing technology are the addition of woody biomass to extend the operation of sugar mills and the capture of carbon dioxide (CO2) generated during sugar fermentation into ethanol. Both actions are already adopted and well developed. The study quantifies greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, expressed as carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions and the present value cost for operation of a global fleet of 1 billion LDV over a 60-year period. The PHEV powered by sugar cane products reduces GHGs emissions partly through negative emissions, at a lower cost than gasoline fueled ICE vehicles or electric vehicles. Total potential GHG emission reduction is significant but lower than what is required for the transport sector to fulfill international commitments. Nevertheless, if 1 billion sugarcane-based PHEV hit the streets by the year 2060, 6.18 Gt CO2e/year can be avoided while the necessity of land for biomass plantation is kept at a reasonable value (86 Mha).