The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Bank Credit Scale—An Empirical Study Based on Dynamic Panel System GMM Model

With the occurrence of international events such as the US election, the Brexit, the Middle East civil war and the intensification of the Sino-US trade war, the global politics and economy will be on the road of deepening adjustment, and the political and economic uncertainty around the world will continue to increase. Faced with an increasingly complex and volatile economic situation and policy environment, China’s economic policy uncertainty is also increasing. Based on unbalanced panel data of 142 commercial banks in China from 2007 to 2016, the paper uses GMM model to examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on bank credit. The empirical result shows that the increase in uncertainty will lead to conservative banking behavior and suppress the scale of bank credit. At the same time, this uncertainty will have a greater impact on non-state banks and non-listed banks.