On the possibility of predicting some types of earthquake by a mechanical approach

The problem of prediction of the recently established new type of earthquake called “starting” earthquakes is considered. These arise in the earth’s crust at the moment of contact of lithospheric plates. The origin of the “starting” earthquakes is associated with the concentration of contact stresses below them. The problem is considered under the assumption that the lithospheric plates and the below layered substrates are linearly elastic. The layered bases are modeled by three-dimensional bodies, while the lithospheric plates are modeled by Kirchhoff plates. The paper addresses the stress concentration under the plates for different mutual positions when they approach each other with their ends. Both cases of distant plates and contacted plates are considered. The paper demonstrates that this result cannot be obtained by the finite element method and other numerical methods based on the energy integral. The topological method of the block element elaborated in this paper differs from the earlier approaches by the present authors. In the earlier works, local coordinate systems were introduced which complicates understanding the results. The present paper proposes a unified coordinate system which makes the approach applicable to other problems. This approach also reveals a singular concentration of contact stresses which coincides with the previously obtained singularity; however, the present result is more transparent. This result allows us to discuss the approach enabling the prediction of location, time and intensity of an earthquake, as well as the conditions that ensure the realization of prognostication.