The forest mitigation-adaptation nexus: Economic benefits of novel planting regimes

Abstract Previous studies have examined the economic trade-offs of climate change mitigation in forestry. However, most have not explicitly accounted for the impact of climate change on productivity or the value of carbon sequestration when considering the higher costs of adaptive planting. Here we build on previous studies from north-western Canada, using the Woodstock optimization model to assess the economic trade-offs of the standard and two adaptive planting regimes under historical climate and a severe climate change scenario. We considered planting and harvesting costs and revenue from timber and carbon sequestration over 100 years. The analyses were done at a forest level using a continuous production process to identify the best combination of stand-level management to achieve multiple objectives, because that is consistent with strategic decision-making on public land in North America. Our results showed there are potential negative risks from climate change to: harvest volumes, net present value, growing stock, and ecosystem carbon sinks. Despite increased regeneration costs, we found some risk mitigation through adaptive planting, with the greatest benefits through diversification which had higher net present value, growing stock and ecosystem carbon than historic climate with standard stocking. This was a result of planting more valuable species, higher growth rates in mixed stands, and adaption of novel species to new climates. Adaptation through novel planting regimes is a cost-effective forest management strategy that can potentially offset some negative impacts of climate change.