Modelling future development of the average number of passengers per flight

Abstract In this chapter, we present a model of ‘aircraft size’ development. Aircraft size is used here to describe the number of passengers per flight. Aircraft size development at a particular airport or on a flight route depends mainly on demand size and the business decisions of individual airlines. Thus, to model aircraft size development, we need to analyse aircraft fleet development and aircraft utilisation. However, in this book we take a more general approach. We consider only average aircraft size development between airport pairs. Thereby, we need far less input data and assumptions, which are needed to model fleet turnover and utilisation over time. However, the results produced by the model, that is the average aircraft size per flight route, may serve as a top-down input for a more elaborated fleet model.