Analysis of Explanatory Variables of Rail Ridership: The Situation of Rio de Janeiro☆

Abstract This paper aims to establish, from the variables incorporated in the bibliography, the ones potentially indicated to explain and rate the rail ridership, considering the characteristics and specificities of the suburban trains and stations of Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Area (RJMA) as well as its environment. It will be considered the data of railway branch lines of RJMA and their links, along with the econometric models that will be determined, taking into account the explanatory variables of boarding and landing rates of train stations. Contrary to what is observed in international literature, the HDI (Human Development Index), average income and population variables present low interrelation with the following dependent variables: boarding rate, landing rate and total amount of journeys. The HDI calls our attention because it presents a negative interrelation, which strengths the idea that in Brazil the train offer does not contribute to a human development. The low correlation with the average income and population may explain the low quality of the service and the unattractive image of the train. The variables that present greater explanatory capacity of railway rates were the number of jobs in the area of influence and the numbers of extensions of the train itself. This suggests that in Rio the train plays the role of the transport that will take the employees to their workplaces, highlighting the importance of connectivity to obtain passengers.