Simulation model for determining the flood effects characteristics

Abstract Flood monitoring and forecasting systems use hydrological models, GIS technologies, and other methods to process data from hydrological posts, meteorological and landscape data, and to prepare predictive results and communicate them to end-users. The influence of obtained predictive results (the flooding area, the water level, the average velocity of water, etc.) for the specific objects and areas prone to flooding on the flood effects characteristics can be determined on different approaches. The system dynamics allows us to describe in more detail and take into account the direct and inverse relationships between predictive results, flood effects characteristics, and actions to reduce damage from the flood effects. The analysis of the development of the floods and their effects on the various objects and areas prone to flooding was carried out. The results of this analysis made it possible to develop a simulation model based on a system-dynamic approach for calculating time-varying the flood effects characteristics. The flood effects characteristics include, for example, the population in the flood zone, the number of houses destroyed and damaged by flood, the number of bridges destroyed and damaged by flood, etc. The simulation results allow us to form a more complete picture of the flood development in the dynamics. The analysis of such a picture will allow decision-makers to plan actions aimed at preventing and eliminating the effects of floods more effectively.