Australian climate change projections derived from simulations performed for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report

Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have increased rapidly in the past century and are almost certain to continue to increase in the future (IPCC 2001a). Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the best available tools for simulating future climates based on various greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenarios. GCM experiments indicate a global warming of 1.4 to 5.8°C by the year 2100, relative to 1990 (IPCC 2001a). This is likely to be associated with changes to weather patterns, sea-level rise and impacts on ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, forests, fisheries, industries, settlements, energy, tourism and health (IPCC 2001b). Changes in climate will not be globally uniform. More warming is likely in polar regions and over Aust. Met. Mag. 56 (2007) 131-152