Predictors of malignant potential of cystic lesions of the pancreas

Abstract Background Cystic lesions of the pancreas (CLP) are a diagnostic dilemma, the correct characterisation of which determines surgical management. Methods From 1995 to 2005, radiology and pathology records were reviewed for the presence of CLP. CLP were divided into three groups; Group 1: Benign, Group 2: Pre-malignant, and Group 3: Malignant. Results Seventy-nine of 121 patients were included [Group 1: n  = 46, Group 2: n  = 10, Group 3: n  = 23], with a median age at diagnosis of 68 (31–92) years. The median follow-up period was 24 (14–84) months. On univariate analysis, female gender ( p  = 0.04), jaundice ( p p  = 0.03), cyst size (≥2.5 cm) ( p p p p  = 0.01], ALP [ p  = 0.01], total bilirubin [ p  = 0.02], and/or biliary duct dilatation [ p Conclusion Cyst size ≥2.5 cm on computer tomography imaging was an independent predictor of pre-malignant and malignant pancreatic cysts. Cyst size and the presence of biliary obstruction predict potentially malignant cysts of the head of the pancreas, which require surgical management.