The Method of Operations Models Forming under Uncertainty

The aim of the work is to develop a method of operations models forming by introducing restrictions on the operation parameters of the compared operational processes. Consequently, we need to formulate rules for determining of tolerance region of cost estimates for the output product of operational process consisted of short operations. Also, we need to develop the method of tolerance region determining for the parameters of short operations for compared processes. This allows to us formalize the solution of the constraints determining problem for the generated model data. Also we need to carry out test experiments of the developed method on the example of the estimated factors designed to effectiveness determining. The developed modeling method was verified by comparing the results of two operational processes. A comparison of the operational processes results with evaluating of the individual operations results of these processes is obtained. The discrepancy between the simulation results and the results of direct assessment of operations using verified indicators in the area excluded from consideration, using the developed method is observed. The developed modeling method allows to us determine the restrictions area of the simulated operations parameters. Under the conditions of this area accounting, the errors probability in modeling results of problems associated with decision making is eliminated.