Study of persistent fog in Bulgaria with Sofia Stability Index, GNSS tropospheric products and WRF simulations

Abstract The topography of the high valley, in which the Bulgarian capital Sofia is located, predispose the seasonal character of fog formation in anticyclonic conditions. The fog in Sofia is mainly in the cold season, with the highest frequency of registrations in December and January. During the anticyclonic conditions the clear sky and calm or nearly calm conditions favour the formation of inversions and hence the fog formation. The maximum of fog registrations is at 6 UTC and minimum at 15 UTC but during prolonged fog a low visibility is registered also between 12 and 15 UTC. A prolonged fog is registered in Sofia between 3 and 10 January 2014 and is studied by using surface synoptic observations and vertically Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) derived from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). The fog is separated in two parts: 1) part I - radiation fog (3–5 January) and 2) part II - advection fog (7–10 January). The Sofia Stability Index (SSI) is computed using surface temperature observation at 600 and 2300 m asl. The SSI is found to give additional information about the development and the dissipation of inversion layer especially for the part II fog. IWV is derived from two GNSS stations at 600 and 1120 m asl. and clearly detects the change in the air mass between the part I and II (5–6 January) fog. Furthermore, dependence between diurnal IWV cycle and fog formation/dissipation is found with IWV variation being lowest during the days with fog. A comparison of SSI and index computed using the WRF Numerical Weather Prediction model temperatures (SSI-W) shows good correlation but an negative off-set. Assimilation of surface and upper-air observations in the WRF model resulted in partial improvement of the index (10%), which is a result of moderate improvement of the vertical temperature profile.