Prediction, Design, and Performance in Geotechnical Engineering

Improved abilities to analyze geotechnical engineering problems have evolved through advances in engineering geology, laboratory and in situ testing, use of computers, field instrumentation, the observational method, and a considerable body of experience. In spite of improved abilities to predict performance, in some cases geologic conditions are so complex that accurate predications of performance are impossible. Even in such circumstances good engineering is possible if the engineer can anticipate the worst eventuality, and design against it. Geotechnical engineering relies heavily on experience to determine what problems may develop under various geologic conditions, and to anticipate problems that can result in wrong predictions. Several cases involving problems with prediction are reviewed, with a view to determining what can be done to avoid similar problems.