Analysis of the U. S. and USSR Potential for Economic Recovery Following a Nuclear Attack.

Abstract : The purpose of the study is to develop a practical methodology for translating estimates of possible damage from nuclear attack into statements about recovery potential. The approach followed has combined an attack model with an economic recovery model to simulate recovery schedules under a range of different assumptions about attack objectives and recovery policies. Economic data from both the U. S. and the USSR have been used to estimate parameters in these models and to generate preliminary simulations of possible postattack investiment and recovery schedules. Experimentation has been limited to highly aggregated and simplified versions of the conceptual models. (Author)