Medium Range Atmospheric Forecast System: Evaluation Report.

Abstract : The Navy has little experience in evaluating the usefulness of numerical environmental predictions prepared for periods greater than 3 days. Recognizing this, the Naval Environmental Prediction Research Facility (NEPRF) embarked in 1983 in a project to develop a procedure which could establish the relevant accuracy and operational utility of a medium-range (5 to 10 day) atmospheric forecast system. The results of a comprehensive evaluation of the accuracy and utility--with respect to operational Navy applications--of medium range (5-7 day) atmospheric forecast system are presented. Several nonstandard, but operationally relevant, objective measures of forecast model skill are employed, along with more traditional measures. Keywords: Numerical weather prediction, Medium range forecast, and Forecast verification.