Real-time predictions of seabird distribution improve oil spill risk assessments.

Abstract Current knowledge of the distribution of sensitive seabirds is inadequate to safeguard seabird populations from impacts of oil spills in the Arctic. This gap is mainly driven by the fact that statistical models applied to survey data are coarse-scale and static with limited documentation of the distributional dynamics and patchiness of seabirds relevant to risk assessments related to oil spills. This paper describes a dynamic modelling framework solution for prediction of fine-scale densities and movements of seabirds in close-to-real time using fully integrated 3-D hydrodynamic models, dynamic habitat suitability models and agent-based models. The modelling framework has been developed and validated for the swimming migration of Brunnich's Guillemot Uria lomvia in the Barents Sea. The results document that the distributional dynamics of Brunnich's Guillemot and other seabird species to a large degree can be simulated with in-situ state variables and patterns reflecting the physical meteorology and oceanography and habitat suitability.