Association of TG/HDLC ratio trajectory and risk of type 2 diabetes: A retrospective cohort study in China.

BACKGROUND The association of ratio of triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C ratio) change trajectory with risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) remains unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between risk of T2DM and TG/HDL-C ratio change trajectory. METHODS A total of 18,444 participants aged 18-80 years old were included in this cohort study. Linear regression and quadratic regression models were used to determine the TG/HDL-C ratio change trajectory. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between TG/HDL-C ratio change trajectory and probability of T2DM. RESULTS T2DM developed in 714 participants during a median follow-up of 5.74 years (92,076.23 person-years of follow-up). After adjusting for baseline potential confounders, odds of T2DM were greater for participants with the increasing, U-shape, bell-shape and other shape change versus decreasing change (adjusted OR [aOR] 2.01, 95% CI 1.42-2.81; 1.56, 1.15- 2.13; 1.60, 1.17-2.20; and 1.49, 1.13-2.00, respectively). The results were robust in the sensitivity analyses on excluding baseline participants with T2DM. Moreover, the associations remained significant with male sex, age <60 years and body mass index <24 kg/m2 . CONCLUSIONS This retrospective study revealed increased probability of T2DM with increasing, U-shape, bell-shape and other-shape TG/HDL-C ratio change trajectories, especially with male sex, age <60 years and body mass index <24 kg/m2 .