PROJEÇÕES DA PRODUÇÃO DE CELULOSE DE FIBRA CURTA NO BRASIL

Based  on an annual production series of hardwood pulp in Brazil from 1950 to 2009, this study aimed to analyze efficiency  of the Box & Jenkins methodology to forecast production. The most appropriate model was chosen based on the AIC and SCH criteria, on the significance of coefficients, on the principle of parsimony and residual  behavior.  The results points to the ARIMA (2,2,1) model  as the most adequate to forecast the hardwood pulp production  in Brazil.