Liver cirrhosis and the risk of primary liver cancer

The relationship between liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma is recognized, but quantification of risk is still uncertain. Therefore, we analysed data from a case-control study conducted in Italy between 1984 and 1997 on 499 cases of incident, histologically confirmed hepatocellular carcinoma and 1,552 controls in hospital with acute, non-neoplastic disease. Overall, 87 (17.4%) cases vs 10 (0.6%) controls reported clinical history of liver cirrhosis. The corresponding odds ratio (OR) was 27.5 (95% confidence interval (CI), 14.3-15.2) after allowance for sociodemographic factors, and 16.2 (95% CI, 7.9-32.9) after simultaneous allowance for all identified confounding factors, including alcohol consumption and clinical history of hepatitis. The association was of similar magnitude for subjects whose cirrhosis was diagnosed < 55 years (OR = 14.8) or at age 55 or over (OR = 20.0), and the multivariate OR was 33.7 < 5 years after diagnosis of cirrhosis, 37.3 between 5 and 9 years, and 7.6 (95% to 2.7-21.3) ≥ 10 years since diagnosis of cirrhosis. The association was stronger in males (OR = 23.4) than in females (OR = 5.9), similar in various age groups, and somewhat stronger in more educated subjects (OR = 53.7), with history of hepatitis (OR = 33.1), reporting heavy alcohol consumption (OR = 24.9) or high body mass index (OR = 58.1), although the interaction term was significant only for sex. In terms of population attributable risk, 17% of hepatocellular carcinomas in this population can be attributed to clinical history of liver cirrhosis.