Ecological risk assessment due to land use/cover changes (LUCC) in Jinghe County, Xinjiang, China from 1990 to 2014 based on landscape patterns and spatial statistics

Land use/cover change (LUCC) has been a major focus in the study of the interaction between economic, social, biophysical, and ecological conditions. In this paper, an ecological risk index was developed by combining landscape disturbance index with landscape fragmentation to discuss the ecological risk due to LUCC in Jinghe County, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) of China over the past 25 years. Based on the theory of landscape ecology, 116 ecological risk assessment units were established in the study area. A temporal and spatial model was established to assess the ecological risks based on the LUCC data. Results showed that LUCC in Jinghe County has posed significant ecological and environmental risk over the last 25 years. The ecological risk level demonstrated prominent spatial differences as Ebinur Lake and its oasis gradually expanded to surrounding areas. The size and significance of five ecological risk levels were in the order of highest risk > higher risk > moderate risk > lowest risk > lower risk. Therefore, countermeasures for spatial–temporal variation of regional ecological risk should be considered prioritized.