Assessing world energy in the wake of the Iran/Iraq war: an oil shortage proves elusive. [Monograph]

A reassessment of world energy supplies was made in the wake of curtailed exports during the Iran/Iraq war and the corresponding increase in world oil prices, the drop in oil consumption, the widening economic recession, and US decontrol of oil. The report concludes that present worldwide levels of oil production are adequate to satisfy projected levels of consumption through 1981. This leaves the world energy system in balance even if oil exports from Iran and Iraq remain at minimal levels for the year. Past overestimation of demand makes it more likely that this year's consumption will fall short of the projection. The way in which Saudi Arabia's output is cut will be the key to oil pricing in 1981, the authors feel, but the likely approach will be a gradual reduction in production that will allow the Saudis to regain control of OPEC. The effects of a receding demand for oil have been intensified by high US interest rates and the spreading recession. The effect of immediate decontrol of petroleum is likely to compound the trend for reduced consumption and a corresponding increase in efficiency. 2 figures, 2 tables.