Effects of population growth on Crested Tit Parus cristatus post-fledging settlement

From 1987 to 1993, the winter density of Crested Tits Parus cristatus in north Belgium increased 2.76 times. The increase was the result of high annual survival rates of both adult and first-year birds despite a low reproductive success (number of fledglings per female) due to high predation of nestlings. A fc-factor analysis assuming intermediate costs of post-fledging dispersal and settlement gave the best fit. First-year birds had two options when trying to settle in a prospective breeding territory: (1) establish a new territory during August or early September and defend it against neighbouring flocks during winter or immigrants in early spring or both, or (2) overwinter as a subordinate in a mixed-age flock and pair with a widowed adult or replace a territory owner in early spring (“hopeful dominant stategy”). Settlement strategies varied with density; at low density, only the hopeful dominant strategy was observed, whereas at higher density, both strategies occurred.