A Predictive Model for Delirium in Hospitalized Elderly Medical Patients Based on Admission Characteristics

Objective: To prospectively develop and validate a predictive model for the occurrence of new delirium in hospitalized elderly medical patients based on characteristics present at admission. Design: Two prospective cohort studies done in tandem. Setting: University teaching hospital. Patients: The development cohort included 107 hospitalized general medical patients 70 years or older who did not have dementia or delirium at admission. The validation cohort included 174 comparable patients. Measurements: Patients were assessed daily for delirium using a standardized, validated instrument. The predictive model developed in the initial cohort was then validated in a separate cohort of patients