Az európai cukorkvóta kivezetésének hatásai, várható következményei és az ebből eredő lehetőségek = The end of the European Union sugar quota regime: impacts, con-sequences and opportunities

Az Europai Unioban a cukortermelesi kvotak rendszere 2017. oktober 1-től megszűnt. A cukortermeles szabadon novelhető, ezert az AKI megvizsgalta a magyarorszagi kapacitasbővitő fejlesztesek lehetősegeit es kockazatait. A kvotarendszer megszűnesenek hatasat alapvetően a cukor vilagpiaci aranak alakulasa hatarozza meg, ami a kereslet-kinalati viszonyok mellett a kőolaj vilagpiaci aranak valtozasatol, a brazil real es az USA dollar arfolyamatol, mas edesitőszerek (izoglukoz) felhasznalasatol, az EU biouzemanyag-szakpolitikajanak alakulasatol es a targyalas alatt allo szabadkereskedelmi megallapodasok (főkent a Mercosur orszagokkal) megkotesetől fugg. A cukor vilagpiaci ara e tenyezők hatasara nagyon valtozekony lehet, ezert a termekpalya kilatasait illetően nagy a bizonytalansag. Az EU-ban uj cukorgyar epitese ezert egyelőre nem varhato, a meglevő kapacitasok maximalis kihasznalasara, a kampanyidőszak meghosszabbitasara es a logisztikai infrastruktura fejlesztesere torekednek a cukorgyartok. Az Agrana tulajdonaban levő kaposvari cukorgyar napi feldolgozokapacitasa a nyugat-europai gyarakkal osszevetve alacsony es a gyar fekveseből adodoan nem bővithető. Magyarorszagi viszonyok kozott a kampany a szokasos 120 napnal tovabb nem nyujthato. A kaposvari gyar előnye a korszerű es kornyezetkimelő energiaellatas, a megnovelt logisztikai infrastruktura, valamint a nyerscukor-finomito kapacitas meglete. A cukorgyartas versenykepesseget alapvetően meghatarozo cukorrepatermeles hatekonysaga Magyarorszagon gyengebb a versenytarsakenal, ami a termesatlagok mellett a repa cukortartalmaban nyilvanul meg. A versenykepessegi hatranyokat a cukorrepa termeleshez kapcsolt kozvetlen tamogatasa előrelathatolag csak 2020-ig ellentetelezi. Fentiek miatt Magyarorszagon egy uj cukorgyar letesitesevel komoly kockazatot vallalna a befektető. = The European Union’s (EU) sugar and isoglucose production quota regime ended on 1 October 2017. Therefore, the Hungarian Research Institute of Agricultural Economics conducted a study on the opportunities and risks associated with capacity development in Hungary, which is now possible. The impacts of the elimination of the quota regime greatly depend on the world market price, which is influenced not only by supply and demand functions, but also by other external circumstances such as oil prices and the fluctuation of exchange rates of Brazilian real (BRL) and US dollar (USD). Owing to these unstable factors, world market price of sugar is unpredictable and shows great volatility, creating an uncertain outlook on the European industry and market. Factors such as the future production and usage rate of isoglucose, biofuel policies of the EU as well as effects of free trade agreements will affect future market trends. Owing to the uncertainties characterising the future of the sugar market, there is no sign of investments in new sugar factories as market players rather aim to utilise fully their current capacities by extending campaign period or by improving their logistics. The daily maximum beet processing capacity of the one Hungarian sugar factory, at Kaposvar, is low compared to major European competitors, and there is no room for its enlargement due to its location inside the city. In the Hungarian climate, the length of the campaign cannot be extended beyond 120 days. The advantages of the Kaposvar plant include a modern and environmentally-friendly energy supply, upgraded logistical infrastructure and the rawsugar refining capacity. Concerning cultivation, sugar beet yields and sugar content are low in comparison to Western Europe. Disadvantages are compensated by the voluntary coupled support provided by Common Agricultural Policy to Hungarian beet producers until 2020, but further continuation is doubtful. Considering the uncertainties surrounding the sugar market development, investors need to take high risks to finance new sugar factories.