Rainfall-Induced Landslides and Erosion Processes in the Road Network of the Jaén Province (Southern Spain)

Rainfall thresholds are one of the most widely applied methods for indirectly estimating landslide return periods, which are subsequently used in hazard analyses. In this study, the starting point is an incidence database of landslides and erosive processes affecting the road network of the province of Jaen (southern Spain), in which the positions and dates of civil repair works can be found. Meanwhile, the use of a daily rainfall database in a dense grid (1 km) allowed for the estimation of the rainfall series at each incidence point with high precision. Considering the news in the local media and applying spatial proximity, temporal proximity, and maximum return period criteria, rainfall events of various duration (1 to 90 days) could be associated approximately with each point. Then, the rainfall thresholds and their return periods were estimated. A linear equation was adjusted for the rainfall duration threshold (E = 6.408 D + 74.829), and a power-law curve was adjusted for the intensity–duration pair (I = 47.961 D−0.458). Non-significant differences were observed between the thresholds and the return periods for the lower and higher magnitude incidences, but the durations for the former were lower (1–13 days), compared to those of the latter (7–22 days). From the equations, rainfall events of different durations could be estimated for use in hazard analysis, as well as for the future development of warning systems.