Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Pricing Policies: Simulation of Minimum Price Laws and Taxes in New York City

Introduction Minimum price laws, which set a price below which a product cannot be sold, are a promising but understudied strategy for reducing the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. New York City has implemented a minimum price law for tobacco products and could consider this policy for sugar-sweetened beverages. This study projects the impacts of a sugar-sweetened beverage minimum price law among New York City adults, with effects of a sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax examined for comparison. Methods In 2020–2021, a microsimulation model of dietary behaviors and body weight was developed using population-based survey data, research on responsiveness to and avoidance of price increases, and a validated weight change model. Analyses applied the model to simulate the impacts of implementing a minimum price law (8 or 10 cents/ounce price floors) or an excise tax (1 or 2 cents/ounce tax rates) on diet and body weight among New York City adults for more than 5 years. Sensitivity analyses varied assumptions about price responsiveness, caloric compensation, and avoidance. Results A sugar-sweetened beverage minimum price law with an 8 cents/ounce floor would reduce average sugar-sweetened beverage intake by 16.5 calories/day (95% uncertainty interval= −17.2, −15.8) and obesity prevalence by 0.86 percentage points (95% uncertainty interval= −1.03, −0.69). Benefits were similar for a minimum price law with a 10 cents/ounce floor and for 1 and 2 cents/ounce taxes (range of obesity reductions: −0.84 to −1.24 percentage points). Benefits persisted in sensitivity analyses and were larger for Black and Hispanic than for White and Asian adults and for adults with lower than for those with higher income. Conclusions Excise taxes and minimum price laws for sugar-sweetened beverages could both reduce New York City adults’ sugar-sweetened beverage consumption and obesity prevalence and narrow sociodemographic disparities in obesity.