A Predictive Mathematical Modeling Approach for the Study of Doxorubicin Treatment in Triple Negative Breast Cancer

Doxorubicin forms the basis of chemotherapy regimens for several malignancies, including triple negative breast cancer (TNBC). Here, we present a coupled experimental/modeling approach to establish an in vitro pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model to describe how the concentration and duration of doxorubicin therapy shape subsequent cell population dynamics. This work features a series of longitudinal fluorescence microscopy experiments that characterize (1) doxorubicin uptake dynamics in a panel of TNBC cell lines, and (2) cell population response to doxorubicin over 30 days. We propose a treatment response model, fully parameterized with experimental imaging data, to describe doxorubicin uptake and predict subsequent population dynamics. We found that a three compartment model can describe doxorubicin pharmacokinetics, and pharmacokinetic parameters vary significantly among the cell lines investigated. The proposed model effectively captures population dynamics and translates well to a predictive framework. In a representative cell line (SUM-149PT) treated for 12 hours with doxorubicin, the mean percent errors of the best-fit and predicted models were 14% (±10%) and 16% (±12%), which are notable considering these statistics represent errors over 30 days following treatment. More generally, this work provides both a template for studies quantitatively investigating treatment response and a scalable approach toward predictions of tumor response in vivo.