A nomogram for predicting prognostic value of inflammatory biomarkers in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Abstract Background Hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in china is a critical clinical syndrome with a high short-term mortality. This study aimed to construct and validate a model for neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR)-based nomogram for 3-month mortality estimation for patients with ACLF. Methods The nomogram was based on a retrospectively study of 96 patients with ACLF. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of nomogram were evaluated by a concordance index (C-index), and calibration curve, comparing with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. The results were validated using bootstrap resampling and an external cohort of 88 patients. Results A total of 184 patients with ACLF were enrolled, with 3-month mortality of 40.76%. The cut-off value for NLR was 5.7 using X-tile program. Patients with NLR > 5.7 had significantly higher mortality ( p Conclusions The proposed nomogram with NLR resulted in more accurate prognostic prediction for patients with HBV-related ACLF.