Location factors explaining the production of trips by car during sports megaevents: The 2013 Confederations Cup in Rio de Janeiro

Abstract The proliferation of megaevents in metropolises of developing countries, such as Rio de Janeiro-Brazil, increases the need for effective urban mobility planning, due to the restrictions on transportation infrastructure, which is unable to meet the needs of daily commuting. In this context, it is fundamental to formulate policies that discourage the use of private cars. Their effectiveness involves identifying the places with greater propensity to use this modality. This article analyzes the location factors and respective explanatory variables that are most influential in the process of production trips by car during sports megaevents hosted in the Metropolitan Region of Rio de Janeiro (MRRJ). For this purpose, we analyzed the 2013 Confederations Cup, the games of which were played in Maracana Stadium. Initially, it was performed a literature review to establish the variables commonly used in planning transportation systems. Then it was applied the logistic regression model to the selected locational variables, aiming to identify those that best explain the trips produced by car. The performance of models with a single variable and with combinations of variables was analyzed to identify the best one to explain the car trips produced. The variables related to income and quality of life are most significant to explain this kind of produced trips, along with the existence or absence of a high-capacity mass transit system (commuter train and/or subway). The results also confirm the spatial inequality in terms of supply of services and quality of life.