Вероятностная модель транспортной системы

The analysis of descriptions of a transport system is conducted. The features of a transport system of region and factors that influence on the level of reliability of her functioning were examined. A transport system for carrying passengers and loads is totality of structural elements. Reliability of a transport system is determined by system and nonlinear system factors. Casual character of factors determines the necessity of application of probabilistic analysis of level of reliability of functioning of a transport system. The probabilistic model of the system provides possibility of realization of analysis of the systems of the disposed carrying capacity. Supposition about probability of origin of exception condition is the working estimation of possible display of law of random events. Factors of decline of level of reliability of functioning of a transport system are investigation of refuses of a transport technique, human factor and environment. For the receipt of quantitative values of probability of the normal functioning of a transport system the count of the states and system of differential equalizations are worked out. A numerical example is worked out and the results of calculations of parameters of reliability of a transport system are presented.