Modeling of the influence of land transformation of Ukraine on the formation of CO2 emission and assimilation and the potential of reducing its concentration in the atmosphere

The article presents the results of studies of the influence of land transformation of Ukraine on the formation of CO 2 emissions and assimilation and the potential of reducing its concentration in the atmosphere. The reports of Ukraine to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) from 1990 to 2015 were used. Based on the data of correlation-regression analysis, it is established that the impact on CO 2 emission and assimilation is caused by the transformation of lands: into forests (by 83.9%), wetlands (by 54.3%), settlements (by 38.7%). According to the results of the research, three levels of significance of the environmental impact of land transformation on the formation of CO 2 emissions are identified. Forests and wetlands are included in the 1st, arable lands and settlements in the second, other lands and pastures by the third. Of the 75.5% of the total change in CO 2 volume, 15.3% is explained by the variation in the change in arable land; 6.6% - by changing the areas of land converted into pastures; 41.1% by the change in the area of land transformed to settlements; 6.2% by changing the area of land transformed to other land; 6.2% is explained by changes in air temperature. The data obtained showed that a change of the area of transformed lands by 1% for individual lands (except forests and wetlands), provided that the established transformation trends are maintained, will lead to an increase (or decrease) of CO 2 emissions: for arable land - by 22.5%; for pastures - by 23.7%; for settlements - by 38.7%; for other lands - by 23.8%. A change in air temperature of 1% (0.0879 t ˚C), if the trends of transformation are maintained, will result in a 34.8% change in CO 2 emissions. It is proved that air temperature is a determining component that simultaneously affects all types of land and the formation of CO 2 emissions. This factor is sufficiently influential and poorly controlled and can dramatically change the environmental situation.