Ecoregional-Level Assessment of the Potential Distribution of the Invasive Apple Snail Pomacea maculata Perry, 1810 (Gastropoda: Ampullariidae): Setting Geographically Explicit Priorities for the Management of the Invasion

Pomacea species, also known as apple snails, are highly invasive freshwater organisms now occurring in Central and North America, Asia and Europe. Species misidentification within the genus has hampered efforts to manage their spread and impact, and thus Pomacea maculata have received much less attention that P. canaliculata. Species Distribution Models are well suited for a global screening for suitable regions for the establishment of apple snails. Here, a global distribution model for the distribution of P. maculata based on an extensive database allowed us to identify current and future potential receptor freshwater ecoregions (FEOws) and to set priorities for the development of early warning strategies under climate change scenarios. Model performance was adequate, predicting accurately most invaded FEOWs across the world. Performing a global balance for climate change scenarios, and considering only FEOWs with medium and high ecoregional susceptibility (ES), the potential native distribution of P. maculata is reduced in ca. 945,701 km2, while the exotic potential distribution area increases in 1,118,111 km2. To minimize risks of future invasions, uninvaded FEOWs with both high values of ES and a predicted increase in environmental quality for the establishment of P. maculata were identified across the globe. The development of early warning schemes aiming to detect the initial phase of invasions may provide a unique opportunity for control of this highly invasive species before a much damage to the socio-ecological system is inflicted.