Dynamic calculation and driving forces analysis of energy ecological footprints in Chizhou area from 2000 to 2010

Ecological footprint (EF) method is a new prevailing approach to evaluate the sustainability of regional development. The time series of ecological footprint (EF) from 2000 to 2010 was calculated by using the statistical data of resource and energy consumption in Chizhou. On this basis, this paper forecasted the EF in the year 2015 and 2020. The driving factors of ecological footprint were analyzed using STIRPAT model. The results showed that EF per capita increased from 0.1173 ghm2 to 0.8993 ghm2 within the past ten years. The ecological pressure intensity of energy footprint (EPIEF) tends to increase, which means pressure of energy consumption on natural ecological system is enhancing. Among the components of EF, the percentage of coal footprint has increased to 90.21%. The EF is positively correlated with population scale, GDP per capita, the secondary industrial proportion and industrial added value of unit energy consumption. Their corresponding coefficients of effect on EF are 0.5698, 0.590, 1.468 and 0.144, respectively. Energy footprint intensity trend exhibits a reverse U-shape pattern. This paper may help Chizhou government to accurately estimate sustainable development capability, and provide a scientific basis which would support the coordinated development between the environment and economy in other areas in similar scales.